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Census Bureau Reports
World’s Older Population Projected to Triple by
2050
The world’s 65-and-older
population is projected to triple by midcentury,
from 516 million in 2009 to 1.53 billion in
2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In
contrast, the population under 15 is expected to
increase by only 6 percent during the same
period, from 1.83 billion to 1.93 billion.
In the United States, the
population 65 and older will more than double by
2050, rising from 39 million today to 89
million. While children are projected to still
outnumber the older population worldwide in
2050, the under 15 population in the United
States is expected to fall below the older
population by that date, increasing from 62
million today to 85 million.
These figures come from the
world population estimates and projections
released today through the Census Bureau’s
International Data Base. This latest update
includes projections by age, including people
100 and older, for 227 countries and areas.
Less than 8 percent of the
world’s population is 65 and older. By 2030, the
world’s population 65 and older is expected to
reach 12 percent, and by 2050, that share is
expected to grow to 16 percent.
“This shift in the age
structure of the world’s population poses
challenges to society, families, businesses,
health care providers and policymakers to meet
the needs of aging individuals,” said Wan He,
demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population
Division.
From 2009 to 2050, the
world’s 85 and older population is projected to
increase more than fivefold, from 40 million to
219 million. Because women generally live longer
than men, they account for slightly more than
half of the older population and represent
nearly two-thirds of the 85 and older
population.
Europe likely will continue
to be the oldest region in the world: by 2050,
29 percent of its total population is projected
to be 65 and older. On the other hand,
sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain the
youngest region as a result of relatively higher
fertility and, in some nations, the impact of
HIV/AIDS. Only 5 percent of Africa’s population
is projected to be 65 and older in 2050.
Countries experiencing
relatively rapid declines in fertility combined
with longer life spans will face increasingly
older populations. These countries will see the
highest growth rates in their older populations
over the next 40 years.
There are four countries
with 20 percent or more of their population 65
and older: Germany, Italy, Japan and Monaco. By
2030, 55 countries are expected to have at least
one-in-five of their total population in this
age category; by 2050, the number of countries
could rise to more than 100.
Although China and India
are the world’s most populous countries, their
older populations do not represent large
percentages of their total populations today.
However, these countries do have the largest
number of older people — 109 million and 62
million, respectively. Both countries are
projected to undergo more rapid aging, and by
2050, will have about 350 million and 240
million people 65 and older, respectively.
The
International Data Base offers a variety of
demographic indicators for countries and areas
of the world with populations of 5,000 or more.
It provides information on population size and
growth, age and sex composition, mortality,
fertility and net migration.
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